Cass Freight Index points to annual shipments and expenditures declines

April freight shipments and expenditures readings again largely saw sequential and annual declines, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Indexes accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers.  

April’s shipment reading, at 1.098, decreased 4.0% annually, steeper than March’s 3.6% annual decline, and less than from February’s 4.5% decrease and January’s 7.6% decline. October, November, and December, respectively, saw annual declines, at 9.5%, 8.9%, and 7.2%, with March remaining below August 2022’s 1.278 reading, which marked the highest level for shipments since May 2018. Compared to March, April shipments fell 1.3%. On a two-year stacked change basis, shipments were off 6.3%.

Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, wrote in the report that the 1.3% sequential decline in shipments showed how for-hire demand remains broadly soft, adding that 1.6% sequential seasonally-adjusted change saw volumes return to the cycle lows seen in the second half of 2023.

“Underlying volumes did show improvement in Q1, as the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index rose about 2% from Q4’23 in SA terms,” he observed. “Lunar New Year timing and/or the Baltimore bridge may have temporarily affected April data, but at this pace, volumes are at risk of giving up those gains in Q2.”

April expenditures, at 3.227, were off 16.8% annually, less steep than March’s 18.5% decline, as well as February’s 19.8% annual decline, and January’s 24.3% decline, and 23.3%, 25.6%, and 23.7% annual decreases, seen in October, November, and December, respectively. Expenditures were flat sequentially and down 1.9% sequentially on a seasonally-adjusted basis, and on a two-year stacked change basis, shipments were off 28.4%.

“The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index fell 19% in 2023, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022,” wrote Denoyer. “It is set to decline about another 16% in 1H’24, assuming normal seasonal patterns from here, and 10% for the full year.”