Freight shipments and expenditures finish first half of 2024 with declines, reports Cass Freight Index Report
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Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.
What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers.
June’s shipment reading, at 1.078, fell 6.0% annually, in line with May’s 5.8% annual decline, and was down 1.8% compared to May and also down 1.8% compared to May on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis, falling to a four-year low.
“If there’s any silver lining, this is starting to look like a real bottom,” said Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “Amid slowing economic growth, goods demand is still broadly flattish. We see the insourcing of freight via private fleet capacity additions as the main driver of the y/y decline in for-hire volumes. After rising 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023. With normal seasonality from the June level, the index will fall about 4% y/y in July and about 5% for the full year.”
On the expenditures side, the June reading fell 9.4%, from May to June (in line with May’s 9.0% decline), coming in at 3.189, and was down 3.0% compared to May and was also down 3.2% compared to May on a SA basis.
“The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index fell 19% in 2023, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022,” said Denoyer. “It declined another 16% in 1H’24, and assuming normal seasonal patterns from here, will decline 11%-12% for the full year.”
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