October freight shipments and expenditures see annual declines, notes Cass Freight Index

October freight shipment and expenditure readings saw declines, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $44 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers.  

The October shipments reading, at 1.081, fell 2.4% annually, following a 5.2% annual decline in September, which was preceded by a 1.9% annual decline in August (which was its smallest decline in 18 months through August). Sequentially, shipments were off 1.9%, its eighth consecutive annual decline and were down 0.1% sequentially on a Seasonally-Adjusted (SA) basis. On a two-year stacked change basis, shipments were down 11.7%.

“In a sign that private fleet growth continues to affect for-hire demand, the ongoing softness in shipments comes as Class 8 tractor sales rebounded from supply constraints in Q2,” wrote Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst, in the report.   “Although goods demand growth is driving broad freight volume growth, as can be seen in intermodal, imports, and freight GDP, it is still not reaching the for-hire market. After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, this index declined 5.5% in 2023. With normal seasonality, the index will fall about 3% y/y in November and about 4% for the full year.” 

Expenditures, at 3.175, fell 5.9% annually and were off 27.8% annually on a two-year stacked change basis, while rising 0.4% sequentially and fall 1.7% sequentially on a Seasonally-Adjusted (SA) basis.

“The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 1.5% m/m in October, partly due to another decline in fuel prices,” wrote Denoyer. “The y/y decline moderated to 5.9% from 6.6% in September. With shipments down 1.9% m/m, we infer the 1.5% decrease in expenditures included rates up 0.4% m/m in October (see our inferred rates data series below).”