Cass Freight index sees annual October freight shipments and expenditures declines

Freight shipments and expenditures remained on an uneven path on October, according to the new edition of the Cass Freight Index, which was recently issued by Cass Information Systems. 

Many freight transportation and logistics executives and analysts consider the Cass Freight Index to be the most accurate barometer of freight volumes and market conditions, with many analysts noting that the Cass Freight Index sometimes leads the American Trucking Associations (ATA) tonnage index at turning points, which lends to the value of the Cass Freight Index.

What’s more, the Cass Transportation Index accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $36 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers. 

The October shipments reading, at 0.997, was down 7.8% annually, steeper than September’s 5.5% annual decline, and fell 4.3% compared to September. The reading was down 2.1% on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis, from September to August, and down 10.0% on a two-year stacked change basis, in line with a 10.4% decline, for that metric, in September.   

“In recent months, the declines have been concentrated in LTL, as ongoing LTL rate increases in a soft market cause more shippers to consolidate LTL loads into TLs, in addition to the insourcing going on at a pair of mega-shippers,” wrote Tim Denoyer, the report’s author and ACT Research vice president and senior analyst. “Demand air pockets are likely to continue, but the severity of inflation depends on the coming Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs, which could occur any time from soon to June. After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and is trending toward another considerable decline in 2025. In November, the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index would decline 10% [annually] on the normal seasonal pattern.”

The October expenditures reading, at 3.169, decreased 0.2% annually, following a 2.2% annual gain in September, while falling 3.9% from sequentially and 2.1% on a month-to-month SA basis, with expenditures down 6.1% on a two-year stacked change basis.

“The flattish results of the past few months were a combination of fewer shipments and higher rates,” wrote Denoyer. “We infer rates rose 8.2% [annually], largely due to changing modal mix with more TL and less LTL, similar to recent months. In SA terms, this index fell 2.1% [sequentially], similar to the drop in shipments, with rates unchanged. The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.”