BlueGrace LCI shows shippers entering 2026 with cautious but strengthening confidence

The new edition of the BlueGrace Logistics Confidence Index (LCI) highlighted what could be viewed as mixed expectations, for the first quarter 2026, noting that shippers will be coming into the year with what it described as a “cautious, measured outlook.”

BlueGrace describes this report as an important tool for measuring expected expansion or contraction within the logistics sector. It adds that by analyzing revenue forecasts, inventory levels, and order volumes, the index provides industry stakeholders with valuable insights into what to expect in the next quarter and how these trends reflect the freight market.

Data for the BlueGrace Logistics Confidence Index is aggregated through a survey of shippers and reflects all freight transportation modes, while correlating growth or shrinkage to the overall industry volume of shipments and the price of products, according to BlueGrace.

First quarter revenue growth expectations were described as steady in the report, with an average forecast of 2%, while positive revenue sentiment hit 72%, its highest level since the second quarter 2025, following a 69% projection, for the fourth quarter, in the report’s previous edition.

Neutral sentiment was at 12%, down from the fourth quarter’s 17%, and negative sentiment was at 17%, up from the fourth quarter’s 14%, with the average expected revenue growth and median forecasts, rising to 3.1% and 3%, respectively. BlueGrace said these readings point to renewed confidence entering 2026, adding that “year-over-year sentiment remains stronger, though expectations reflect cautious optimism amid mixed macro conditions.”

Inventory expectations saw an increase, from 35% positive in the fourth quarter to 42% positive in the first quarter, while neutral sentiment dropped from 56% to 47%, and negative sentiment was flat, at 10%, with average inventory growth expectations up to 1.8% from 0.4% in the fourth quarter, pointing to a modest rebound following softening outlooks, said BlueGrace. It also observed that this expected improvement reflects steady inventory positioning into 2026, with firms balancing growth with disciplined stock management.

Looking at order expectations, the report cited modest improvement, with positive first quarter sentiment coming in at 44%, topping the first quarter’s 36%, with neutral and negative sentiment, at 49% (down from 60% in the fourth quarter) and 8% (up from 5% in the fourth quarter), respectively.

“Compared with a year ago, sentiment and order growth expectations are slightly stronger, suggesting cautious optimism as order activity rebounds entering 2026,” said the report.

The LCI included a ranking of logistics challenges for the first quarter 2026. Leading the way was freight rate volatility, driven by market uncertainty and pricing instability pressuring budgets. Fuel cost increases and carrier capacity availability rounded out the top three. Other challenges, in order, included service expectations, technology, market volatility, and inventory management.

“The Q1 2026 Logistics Confidence Index points to a more measured tone across shippers,” said Randy Ofiara, Vice President of Sales, at BlueGrace. “Revenue and order expectations moderated this quarter as most respondents shifted to a neutral outlook, reflecting cautious optimism amid persistent cost pressure.”

And Bryce Williford, Senior Vice President of 3PL Services, at BlueGrace, said that the Q1 2026 LCI reflects a steady environment for truckload shippers, with freight rate volatility holding as the top concern.

“Although revenue expectations eased slightly, the strong consensus across all measures suggests a more predictable freight market taking shape,” he said.