Trade-driven ‘uncertainty’ remains a major global logistics theme

In the most recent edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued by the Washington, D.C.-based National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, a comment made by NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold, addressing trade and tariffs, focused on how there is still “considerable uncertainty as to what will happen after the [tariff] pauses end,” calling on the White House to continue negotiating with U.S. trading partners “in order to restore profitability and stability to the supply chain.”

Gold’s comments are well-stated, especially as it relates to the ongoing uncertainty. And how could it not, really? For better or worse, in a sense, “uncertainty” has become one of the top buzzwords, not only in logistics, supply chain, and freight transportation circles, but also as it relates to the macroeconomy as well.

That has been made clear in various reports and data points addressing the overall trajectory of the economy of late, with, again, that uncertainty, being a key driver amid it all.

One example of that was the Economic Outlook issued earlier this month by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which stated that “global economic prospects are weakening with substantial barriers to trade, tighter financial conditions, diminishing confidence, and heightened policy uncertainty projected to have adverse impacts with growth.”

Looking at global economic conditions, OECD explained that growth is not in the cards, estimating a 3.3% decline from 2024 to matching 2.9% readings in 2025 and 2026, adding that this decline will be “most concentrated” in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, coupled with lower declines in other nations. As for U.S. GDP, it pegs a decline from 2.8% in 2024 to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, with China declining from 5.0% in 2024 to 4.7% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026.

OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann observed that the global economy has shifted from a period of resilient growth and declining inflation to what it called a more uncertain path, adding that policy uncertainty is having multiple negative effects, including weakening trade and investment, diminishing consumer and business confidence, and curbing growth prospects.

Addressing the global trade landscape, the OECD outlook pointed to various economic risks, such as how further trade fragmentation, including new tariff increases and retaliatory actions, could intensify the growth slowdown and lead to cross-border supply chain disruptions, coupled with the potential for inflation to be more persistent than originally anticipated, notably for economies with higher trade costs or tight labor markets, which, in turn, could lead to more restrictive monetary policy and weakening growth prospects.   

And another example comes from the World Bank’s June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report, which observed that “after a succession of adverse shocks in recent years, the global economy is facing another substantial headwind, with increased trade tension and heightened policy uncertainty.”

Taking that a step further, it explained that there are a whole host of what it called downside risks to its economic outlook, in the form of an escalation of trade barriers, persistent policy uncertainty, rising geopolitical tensions, and an increased incidence of extreme climate events. But, it noted, those factors could be countered should “major economies succeed in reaching lasting agreements that address ongoing trade disputes”—and ease policy uncertainty and trade tensions.

To that end, the World Bank report noted that global trade is slowing due to a substantial rise in trade barriers and the pervasive effects of an uncertain trade environment, which is reflected in its 2025 forecast—calling for growth to decline to 2.3% in 2025, a figure it said would mark the slowest rate of global economic growth since 2008, with a tepid recovery expected over the course of 2026 and 2027.

Where things go from there remains to be seen, of course. That is—and will continue to be—the working thesis until more trade deals are announced or there is some sort of definitive long-term tariff and trade permanence that drives supply chain certainty, which can, in turn, bring some stability and confidence to what is currently a bumpy road.

But regardless of how things shake out, continued fluctuations and uncertainty (there is that word again) figure to be prominently involved.