LM reader survey assesses 2025 Peak Season outlook

As tariffs have continued to dominate many logistics themes over the last several months, it comes as no surprise that that they continue to play a major role at the mid-point of 2025, a time of year, when industry stakeholders are fully immersed in Peak Season activity.

But it is fair to say that this year is unique, due to the flurry of tariff-related trade announcements that have come out of the White House this year, with some seeing starts and stops, and others set to kick in on a certain date—with all of these actions having a common theme: they can unexpectedly and quickly be subject to change.

That was made very clear in a recently-conducted Logistics Management reader survey of 100 freight transportation, logistics, and supply chain stakeholders highlights various aspects of the 2024 peak season in terms of how things are currently progressing as well as things to monitor over the coming months.

The survey’s findings made it clear that the absence of needed clarity on trade policy and tariffs is making it difficult for respondents to clearly assess what may be in store this year. For example, 27% of respondents said that Peak Season will be more active (down from 48% last year), with 42% indicating it will be less active (down significantly from last year’s 42% reading, and 31% said it will be about the same (down from 39% last year). 

Reasons cited by respondents indicating the 2025 Peak Season will be more active in 2025 compared to 2024 included some shippers anticipating things like port congestion and a capacity crunch, in addition to demand for their specific products, and the traditional holiday rush, among others.

On the other end, tariffs were the prevalent theme for those calling for a less active Peak Season. Reasons cited included: economic uncertainty due to tariffs; geopolitical issues; the combination of tariffs increasing prices and reducing demand; and recessionary fears.

“We are doing fewer new launches because of the pause in production and new product development, due to tariffs,” a respondent said. “We also anticipate we will have less demand for the holidays due to retail prices increases, also being driven by tariffs.”

When asked about the impact of Peak Season on day-to-day operations, the survey’s results were somewhat more equitable, with 42% view it as having a “very significant” impact on operations, with 49% calling its impact “somewhat significant,” and 9% saying it was “not very significant.”

And in a straight “yes” or “no” question, 91% of respondents said Peak Season impacts their day-to-day operations, while the remaining 9% said it does not impact their day-to-day operations.

Reasons for the former included: heightened capacity management and procurement activity; volume uncertainty, equipment flow, and staffing; increased inbound and outbound activity; and increased freight costs.

In his assessment of the 2025 Peak Season, Port of Los Angeles (POLA) Executive Director Gene Seroka said that POLA May volumes represented its lowest monthly cargo output in more than two years.  

“While May volume is typically stronger than April as we approach our traditional peak season, our imports dropped 19% [sequentially],” he said. “Unless long-term, comprehensive trade agreements are reached soon, we’ll likely see higher prices and less selection during the year-end holiday season. The uncertainty created by fast-changing tariff policies has caused hardships for consumers, businesses and labor.”

And Seroka said he expects total cargo flow to remain modest for the balance of 2025, citing the recent Global Port Tracker report issued by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates predicting a decline in imports for June, July, and August, respectively.  

Addressing Peak Season, Chris Rogers, S&P Global Market Intelligence Head of Supply Chain Research,  said that with there being only a 90-day gap leading up to the end of reciprocal tariff pause on July 9, coupled with some ocean shipments needing 60 days to get across the Pacific trade lanes, or as low as 48 days depending on which service is used, there is a risk that those shipments arriving late, leading to the question of if everyone can get shipments in on time?

“It doesn't matter that you left China in June, because if your shipment arrives on July 10, have a problem,” he said. “Absolutely, we'd expect to see an accelerated shipment period into July. You can take a bet that there may be a delay, should the White House shift policy and things get extended a month. That would also have the advantage of aligning everything with the China negotiations, which are running through August 12, and would be cleaner.”

Rogers added that companies have been clear about what their strategies are for dealing with tariffs, whether it is trying to ship early or negotiating with suppliers, or increasing customer prices.

“That is really where the rubber hits the road,” he said. “If these tariffs do take effect in July, that means shippers cannot ship their whole Peak Season in the month anyway. You are going to be shipping in August and September anyway. A lot of retailers have 90-to-120 days of inventory and may have worked through that as they get to the holidays. So, if the companies are going to raise prices, it is not an exaggeration to say what happens between July and August will define how successful or otherwise the retail sector will be during this coming holiday season.”