36th Annual State of Logistics: Questions loom over current air cargo volumes status

Market analysts are having a field day with predicting air cargo volumes given current geopolitical events. IMARC Group estimates that the global airfreight market size was valued at $319.4 billion in 2024 and will reach around $492.7 billion by 2033—with a CAGR of 4.9% during the period 2025 to 2033.

While analysts looking at month-to-month data indicate that air cargo volumes have been on an upward trajectory, figures going forward can change like the wind given President Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies and their impact on global shipping.

Looking at the most recent available data when writing this brief, air cargo data firm WorldACD indicated stability in the market in terms of tonnages on a worldwide level for the week ending May 25 (week 21), compared to the previous week.

WorldACD reports that although the week-on-week worldwide figure was flat, demand was 6% higher than last year, with the largest absolute volume growth within the Asia Pacific region.

“Thanks to the strong increase in week 20, the last two weeks taken together were up with a high single digit [+7%] compared to the two weeks before combined,” says WorldACD.

WorldACD analysts point out that the most buoyant region-to-region during the last two weeks in May markets were Asia Pacific to North America (+19%) and North America to Asia Pacific (+13%), with the largest decline in volume from Central & South America to North America (-23%), which is a normal post-Mother’s Day flower shipments pattern.

During the six-week period ending on May 25, WorldACD observed that air cargo exports from China to the U.S. dropped by -14% compared with the same period in 2024. After the large drop in weeks 18 and 19, chargeable weight in week 21 was almost back at the level in 2024, with a -5% difference.

Air cargo exports from China to Europe increased by +11% over the same time frame. Even though there was a modest week-on-week drop of -3% in week 21, analysts see that this market is increasingly showing higher volumes than in 2024.

In May, IATA reported that global airfreight volumes in April continued the growth trend observed in the previous month, up 5.8% year-over-year in cargo-tonne-kilometers (CTK). IATA found that fashion and consumer goods, typically shipped between April and June ahead of the summer retail cycle, supported these numbers.

“Moreover, front-loading aimed at avoiding the upcoming U.S. tariff change on May 2, 2025, regarding lift of the de minimis allowance, contributed as well,” IATA says.

The global shipping data analyst firm Xeneta expects the removal of the de minimis threshold for shipments from China into the U.S. to dramatically disrupt e-commerce volumes.

Approximately 50% of air cargo shipments on the China-U.S. route is e-commerce, accounting for around 6% of global volumes, Xeneta reports. It surmises that a sharp drop in demand is likely to challenge carriers' capacity planning, and that early signs are already pointing to freighter flight cancellations and potential redeployments to other trade lanes.

“With massive uncertainty hanging over the macroeconomic outlook, the question for the air cargo market in 2025 has become: How bad will it be?” says Xeneta. Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, recommended that shippers be prepared for a logistical mess.