Port Tracker points to seasonal patterns for U.S.-bound volumes to end 2025

Amid ongoing tariff and trade-driven activity, typical seasonal patterns appear to be intact over the balance of 2025, as the majority United States-bound retail container imports is in stores and warehouses, according to the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was recently issued by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.

The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.

Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.

The report noted that the 20% fentanyl tariff is being lowered to 10% on November 10 and added that a twice-delayed significant increase for reciprocal tariffs on China, which was also set to increase on November 10, has been delayed for a year. But there is still a 10% reciprocal tariff on goods entering China from the U.S. through the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), with the legality of those tariffs heard in arguments before the U.S. Supreme Court last week.

“We’ve spent most of the year worried about the impact of tariffs on both inflation and the supply chain but the holiday season is here and mitigation efforts appear to have paid off,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Store shelves are well stocked and the effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers taking steps like frontloading imports during times of low or delayed tariff increases or absorbing the costs themselves. Consumers should be able to find the products they want at prices they like.”

For September, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports surveyed in the report, came in at 2.1 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), which marked a 9.3% sequential decline and a 7.4% annual decline.  

Port Tracker issued projections for October and the subsequent months, including:

• October, at 1.99 million TEU, an 11.5% annual decline;
• November, at 1.85 million TEU, down 14.4% annually;
• December, at 1.75 million TEU, down 17.9% annually, which would mark the lowest-volume month since March 2023’s 1.62 million TEU;
• January, at 1.98 million TEU, down 11.1% annually;
• February, at 1.85 million TEU, down 9% annually; and
• March, at 1.79 million TEU, down 16.7%

The report stated that should November and December’s projections come to fruition, they would represent the lowest-volume months of 2025. And it added that those months are traditionally slow, low-volume months, with the caveat that that large annual declines are partially due to late 2024 imports were elevated, or saw spikes, due to concerns over the possibility of port strikes at the time, while also noting that 2025 tariff-driven frontloading, or pull-forwarding, drove up late in the year volume.

For the first half of 2025, the report stated that total U.S.-bound imports, at 12.53 million TEU, are up 3.7% annually, with full-year 2025 pegged at 24.9 million TEU, for a 2.3% annual decrease.

“What we are experiencing is a realignment of supply chains as importers shift their import origins,” wrote Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett in the report. “China has successfully modified its relationships with other Asian countries as well as with Canada, Australia and several nations in Africa and South America, limiting its reliance on exports to and imports from the US. In the end, American industries and the American consumer will suffer as rising prices begin to impact the cost of doing business and the cost of living, particularly now that large importers are beginning to pass through their increased costs. Inflation will follow suit, and demand will suffer due to this self-imposed national economic strategy. These conditions make market forecasting highly uncertain. Weak demand for imports from Asia has created excess shipping capacity, undermining sea carriers' efforts to raise freight rates as they prioritize maximizing their loadings. Our outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026.”

Last week, the NRF issued its holiday season sales forecast. NRF defines the holiday sales season as the period from November 1 through December 31.

For 2025, NRF said it is calling for total holiday season spending to come increase between 3.7%-to-4.2% annually, coming in between $1.01 trillion-to-$1.02 trillion. In 2024, holiday sales saw a 4.3% annual gain, to $976.1 billion.

NRF officials explained that the holiday forecast is based on economic modeling through a slew of economic indicators, including: consumer spending; disposable personal income; employment; wages; inflation; and previous monthly sales releases, while stripping out automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants.