Looking at the impact of tariffs on U.S. manufacturing

Six months after the administration’s latest wave of tariffs took effect, the headlines tell an optimistic story. The U.S. trade deficit is narrowing. Tariff revenues have doubled. Companies have announced more than $1.7 trillion in new manufacturing investments, from semiconductor fabs in Texas to EV battery plants in Tennessee.

It looks like progress. Yet, if success is measured by the strength of American manufacturing, the reality is more complicated. Tariffs can shift incentives, but they can’t solve the structural issues that determine where and how products are made.

For decades, globalization built supply chains optimized for cost rather than resilience. Production followed inexpensive labor, solid infrastructure, and efficient logistics; advantages that favored Asia. Reversing that pattern takes more than policy; it requires rebuilding America’s manufacturing muscle from the ground up.

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